Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 May 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 May 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 03/1421Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/0128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 03/1928Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 621 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 May, 05 May) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (06 May).
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 May 067
  Predicted   04 May-06 May 067/067/068
  90 Day Mean        03 May 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 May  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  006/005-006/005-017/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%40%
Minor storm01%01%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm15%15%55%

All times in UTC

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