Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 August 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Aug 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 405 km/s at 03/2104Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
03/2301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/2351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 121 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Aug, 06 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Aug 070 Predicted 05 Aug-07 Aug 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 04 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Aug 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 009/010-010/010-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Currently there's no noteworthy space weather
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