Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 November 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 08/1512Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 08/0826Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
08/0833Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 8829 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (09 Nov, 10
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 070 Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 08 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 011/016-014/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 60% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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