Viewing archive of Friday, 9 November 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 08/2120Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 09/2039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/1547Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4753 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Nov) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 069 Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 012/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 009/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 015/020-014/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 45% | 45% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
ReykjavikCurrent data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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