Viewing archive of Monday, 19 November 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 350 km/s at 19/1704Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
18/2222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/2227Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 753 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (22 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 071 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 007/008-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1677AR4048 126New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 47AR 4054 21Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2229
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