Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 January 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 23/2045Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 23/1636Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
23/1904Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Jan), unsettled
to active levels on day two (25 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (26 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 072 Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 23 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 018/024-013/018-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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