Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 January 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Jan 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
26/1322Z from Region 2733 (N05W34). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jan,
28 Jan, 29 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 25/2119Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 26/0836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
26/0952Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2053 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan, 29
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 077 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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