Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 October 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 16/1628Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 15/2358Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/0233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 223 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19
Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 066 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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