Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 October 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 672 km/s at 27/0000Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 36223 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29
Oct, 30 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 069 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 017/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 010/012-010/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 40% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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