Viewing archive of Monday, 28 October 2019
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.comJoint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 659 km/s at 28/0054Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 58545 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (29 Oct, 31
Oct) and quiet to active levels on day two (30 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 069
Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 28 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 008/008-008/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 25% | 15% |
Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. High Latitudes |
Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
Major-severe storm | 20% | 35% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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