Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 December 2019
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Dec 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 411 km/s at 14/2019Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/2353Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 070 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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