Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 December 2019

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2019 Dec 19 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 19 Dec 2019 until 21 Dec 2019
Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
19 Dec 2019070016
20 Dec 2019070017
21 Dec 2019070017

Bulletin

Solar X ray flux remained below B level throughout the period. There are no spotted regions on disk and X-ray flux is expected to remain at background levels.

No Earth-directed CME's were detected in coronagraph images.

Solar high energy proton fluxes were at background levels and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind showed the ongoing passage of a coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed was between 500-550km/s. Total magnetic field has restored over the period to under 5nT with a variable Bz. The magnetic field phi angle was stable in the positive sector. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced over the next 48 hours but Solar wind speed is expected to start to decline within the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions have been unsettled to active (NOAA Kp 2-4 and local K Dourbes 1-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled over the next 24-48 hours in the wake of the passing high speed stream, with initially an active period also still possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Dec 2019

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux070
AK Chambon La Forêt023
AK Wingst017
Estimated Ap015
Estimated international sunspot number000 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
None

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 7
Threshold reached: 19:32 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Arkhangelsk

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Copenhagen
Tallinn
Riga
Perm, Saint Petersburg, Surgut, Yaroslavl
Malmö, Stockholm
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (13.94nT), the direction is North (13.19nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-144nT)

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