Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 December 2019

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Dec 18 2215 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 578 km/s at 18/1929Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 18/1025Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 18/1029Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Dec 070
  Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        18 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Dec  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  010/010-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm35%25%25%

All times in UTC

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