Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 December 2019
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2019 Dec 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2019IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec, 25 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 390 km/s at 21/2210Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
22/2035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
22/1029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 737 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Dec, 24 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (25 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Dec 071 Predicted 23 Dec-25 Dec 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 22 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Dec 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec 006/005-006/005-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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