Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 January 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jan 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 1182 km/s at 09/0742Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 09/0324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/0501Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 074 Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 007/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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