Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 January 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jan 21 2240 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2020 CORIA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 366 km/s at 21/1908Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 21/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
21/1312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 133 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (23 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (24 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 071 Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 009/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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