Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 February 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Feb 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 19/0856Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 19/0332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 19/0302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 327 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 071 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 015/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 015/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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