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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Mar 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 21/0957Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/0237Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0414Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 264 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 Mar, 23 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (24 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Mar 071
  Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        21 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Mar  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar to 24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm30%20%10%

All times in UTC

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