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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Jul 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 06/0601Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/2140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Jul, 09 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jul 069
  Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        06 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  013/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jul  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%20%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%25%25%

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