Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 September 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 14/2118Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 15/0808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/0829Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 164 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 069 Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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