Viewing archive of Monday, 21 September 2020
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2020 Sep 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2020IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 323 km/s at 21/2042Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
20/2247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/1700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 177 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (23 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Sep 071 Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 071/072/074 90 Day Mean 21 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 006/005-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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