Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 January 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 12/0305Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 11/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2334Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jan 073
  Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan 073/073/074
  90 Day Mean        12 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jan  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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