Viewing archive of Friday, 29 January 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jan 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 422 km/s at 29/0144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3847 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (31 Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (01 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 076 Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 075/074/074 90 Day Mean 29 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 005/005-007/008-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan to 01 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 60% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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