Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 February 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Feb 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 074 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-007/008-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
ReykjavikCurrent data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
Latest news
X1.1 solar flare
Coronal hole faces Earth
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
22:39 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.05 flare
22:24 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 50GW at 23:16 UTC
22:24 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.05)
17:09 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.08 flare
16:51 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.04)
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/11 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/04/06 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2025 | 134.2 -20.4 |
| April 2025 | 141.4 +7.2 |
| Last 30 days | 137.1 -3 |