Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar, 09 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 06/1528Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 06/0305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
06/0141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3065 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 077 Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 077/077/075 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 016/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 013/015-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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