Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 424 km/s at 10/0735Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
10/0147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at
10/1603Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1458 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Mar, 12 Mar) and quiet to
active levels on day three (13 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 079 Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 079/079/079 90 Day Mean 10 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 006/005-006/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, SodankyläArkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Luleå, Umeå
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