Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 March 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 597 km/s at 14/0900Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 14/1454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 14/0338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2744 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 078 Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 013/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 018/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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