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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 597 km/s at 14/0900Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/1454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2744 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 078
  Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar 078/078/078
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  013/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  018/024
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%10%10%

All times in UTC

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