Viewing archive of Monday, 5 April 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 343 km/s at 05/1458Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/1042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
05/1053Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 398 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Apr, 07 Apr)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 072 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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