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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 343 km/s at 05/1458Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/1042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 05/1053Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 398 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Apr, 07 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (08 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Apr 072
  Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        05 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  008/008-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm25%25%20%

All times in UTC

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