Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 April 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Apr 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (30 Apr, 01
May) and expected to be very low on day three (02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 363 km/s at 29/1910Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
29/1948Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
29/1246Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1076 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Apr, 01 May)
and unsettled levels on day three (02 May).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Apr 077 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 077/075/072 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 007/008-006/008-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 40% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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