Viewing archive of Monday, 3 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 503 km/s at 03/1635Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at
03/0502Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/0914Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 231 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 May) and quiet levels on
days two and three (05 May, 06 May).
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 072 Predicted 04 May-06 May 072/074/076 90 Day Mean 03 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 012/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 009/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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