Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (21 May) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (22 May, 23 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 20/2042Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 20/1201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 20/1027Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (22 May) and quiet levels on day three (23 May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 May 072 Predicted 21 May-23 May 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 20 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May 020/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 008/010-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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