Viewing archive of Friday, 21 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
21/1928Z from Region 2824 (N20E27). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 May,
23 May, 24 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 21/0541Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 819 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 May, 24 May).
III. Event Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 074 Predicted 22 May-24 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 21 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 017/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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