Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/1711Z from Region 2824 (N21E13). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May,
25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 520 km/s at 21/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1035 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 May, 24 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 076 Predicted 23 May-25 May 076/076/076 90 Day Mean 22 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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