Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 May 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 May 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
28/2313Z from Region 2824 (N19W68). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (30 May) and expected to be very low with a slight
chance for a C-class flare on day two (31 May) and expected to be very
low on day three (01 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 476 km/s at 29/1904Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
29/0409Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/1001Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15 pfu at 29/0320Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 134 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May), quiet levels on
day two (31 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| Class M | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 076 Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 074/072/072 90 Day Mean 29 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 008/008-006/005-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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