Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (09 Jul) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 340 km/s at 08/0302Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
07/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/2336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 205 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 Jul, 10 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (11 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 073 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 073/073/073 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 006/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul to 11 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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