Viewing archive of Monday, 19 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/1907Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jul,
21 Jul, 22 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 450 km/s at 19/1847Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 19/1240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/1311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 403 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 083 Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 084/088/088 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 006/005-007/008-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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