Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 July 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jul,
22 Jul, 23 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 20/1819Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/0240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
19/2334Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 267 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 Jul, 22 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (23 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 087 Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 088/090/088 90 Day Mean 20 Jul 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 004/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 006/008-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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