Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 July 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 21/2005Z from Region 2845 (S15W61). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one and two (22 Jul, 23 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 21/0811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 274 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Jul), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (23 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
Class M05%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jul 094
  Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul 094/092/090
  90 Day Mean        21 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jul  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  007/008-013/018-013/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%40%35%
Minor storm05%25%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm25%60%50%

All times in UTC

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