Viewing archive of Friday, 30 July 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Jul 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 522 km/s at 30/1220Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/0355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 30/0629Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 779 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (31 Jul, 02 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (01 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jul 076
  Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug 076/074/072
  90 Day Mean        30 Jul 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  012/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jul  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  008/010-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm40%40%25%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT
Juneau, AK
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (507.6 km/sec.)
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-5.89nT).

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