Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 August 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 476 km/s at 17/2108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 490 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (19 Aug, 20 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Aug 075
  Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug 075/075/073
  90 Day Mean        18 Aug 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  007/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  005/005-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm15%15%25%

All times in UTC

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