Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/0649Z from Region 2868 (S22W90). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (15 Sep, 16
Sep) and expected to be very low on day three (17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 13/2142Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/1821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 332 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Sep, 16 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on day three (17 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 078 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 078/075/075 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 006/005-006/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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