Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/0649Z from Region 2868 (S22W90). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (15 Sep, 16
Sep) and expected to be very low on day three (17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 13/2142Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/1821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 332 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Sep, 16 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on day three (17 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 078 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 078/075/075 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 006/005-006/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Latest news
Friday, 28 March 2025
X1.1 solar flare
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
AR4048 128Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1678Sunspot Latitudes at or near Solar Maximum 85New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 47AR 4054 21
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
02:00 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 01:45 UTC
Tuesday, 8 April 2025
23:57 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 50GW at 00:44 UTC
22:42 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.57 flare
22:24 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.52)
15:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 14:59 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/08 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/04/06 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2025 | 134.2 -20.4 |
| April 2025 | 151.3 +17.1 |
| Last 30 days | 137.4 +0.1 |