Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 September 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
14/0649Z from Region 2868 (S22W90). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (15 Sep, 16
Sep) and expected to be very low on day three (17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 13/2142Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/1821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 332 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Sep, 16 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on day three (17 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 078 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 078/075/075 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 006/005-006/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
AR 13901 88Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1245Sunspot Latitudes at or near Solar Maximum 76The Rotations of AR 13780 and AR 13902 1Space Weather Memes 580
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |