Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 September 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 14/0649Z from Region 2868 (S22W90). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (15 Sep, 16 Sep) and expected to be very low on day three (17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 13/2142Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/1124Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 332 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Sep, 16 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Sep 078
  Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep 078/075/075
  90 Day Mean        14 Sep 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  006/005-006/005-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%40%
Minor storm01%01%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm25%20%35%
Major-severe storm20%20%50%

All times in UTC

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