Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 September 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Sep 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 29/2156Z from Region 2877 (S16W40). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 30/2050Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 30/1818Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/1811Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 616 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Sep 095
  Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct 095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        30 Sep 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Sep  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  018/024-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%40%25%
Minor storm30%20%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm20%30%25%
Major-severe storm70%60%30%

All times in UTC

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