Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 06/0622Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 06/1625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
06/1450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 185 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct,
08 Oct, 09 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 085 Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 06 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct to 09 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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