Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 October 2021

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 14/0134Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 13/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1424Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1558Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 284 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Oct, 16 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (17 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Oct 083
  Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct 082/080/078
  90 Day Mean        14 Oct 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  006/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm25%25%20%

All times in UTC

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