Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 October 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Oct 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on day one (18 Oct) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for
a C-class flare on days two and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 17/0111Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 17/0111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
17/1038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 251 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct) and
quiet levels on day three (20 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 077 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 078/080/080 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 009/012-012/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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