Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/0843Z from Region 2894 (S28W33). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 383 km/s at 13/0312Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
12/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
13/1851Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1185 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on day three (16 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 081 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 081/081/083 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/005-006/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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