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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 11/2202Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/0345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/0023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 895 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Nov 083
  Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 083/081/081
  90 Day Mean        12 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov to 15 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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