Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 November 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Nov 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 345 km/s at 14/0114Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/0339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/0319Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1600 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Nov), quiet to active levels on day
two (16 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 078 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 079/080/079 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 000/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 006/005-008/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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