Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one and two (12 Dec, 13 Dec) and expected to be very low with a
slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 337 km/s at 11/0024Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 11/0327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
11/0257Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1184 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 Dec, 13 Dec)
and quiet levels on day three (14 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 076 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 076/078/078 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 007/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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