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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 06/2246Z from Region 2924 (S31E20). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 352 km/s at 06/2101Z. Total IMF reached 24 nT at 07/0734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 07/0734Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 821 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (10 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jan 107
  Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan 110/112/112
  90 Day Mean        07 Jan 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  006/005-011/012-011/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%30%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%40%40%

All times in UTC

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