Viewing archive of Friday, 7 January 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jan 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
06/2246Z from Region 2924 (S31E20). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 352 km/s at 06/2101Z. Total IMF reached 24 nT at
07/0734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
07/0734Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 821 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Jan), quiet to active levels on day
two (09 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (10 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 107 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 110/112/112 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 006/005-011/012-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |